Document Type
Report
Publication Date
10-1999
Abstract
In a low interest, low salience governor's race, the incumbent Governor Foster has an overwhelming advantage over his main opponent, William Jefferson. In an election with such a popular incumbent, most of the undecided vote can be categorized as against that incumbent because one can assume that a "don't know" response really represents reservations about the incumbent. If we assume that Foster receives only 20% of the Undecideds and those who refused to say, he still comfortably crosses the 50% mark needed to win in the primary. If we assume a ten percent difference between white turnout and black turnout (whlch was the case in the 1995 gubernatorial primary), Foster receives over 50% of the vote, even without allocating any of the Undecideds. As expected, vote preferences are highly racially polarized, with both candidates receiving 10% or less of the vote from the other racial group. Jefferson's support among blacks is most certainly underestimated here; the larger black undecided, plus those who say "other" (3 1 %) may indicate that they are not sure who William Jefferson is yet. Keep in mind that this survey represents opinions and preferences two weeks or more in advance of the election, so we can expect many voters to be unsure since interest in the election is so low. Governor Foster's approval rating remains at a high 72%, with a 36% gap between white approval and black approval. However, even with this racial polarization, nearly 50% of the black registered voters approve of Foster.
Recommended Citation
Howell, Susan E., "1999 Louisiana Governor’s Primary Election Survey" (1999). Survey Research Center Publications. Paper 23.
https://scholarworks.uno.edu/src_pubs/23