Session on Decision-Making Support

Philip Van Saun, University of California - San Diego
Jairo Santanilla, The University of New Orleans


Crisis Decision-Making and the Use of Micro-games (Phillip Van Saun)

Present the fact and frugal crisis decision-making method, and the value of conducting crisis micro-games to enhance decision-making during a crisis.

A Mathematical Model of Terrorism (Jairo Santanilla)

We will discuss the outcomes of a mathematical model of terrorism based on a system of equations. The mathematical tools will be omitted to make the presentation accessible to a general audience. The model makes simple but reasonable assumptions about the interaction between members of the terrorist organization. The organization is divided into two populations, the leaders and non-leaders.

Although the model is simplified to avoid mathematical complications, the graphs obtained from the solutions to the equations are easily interpreted, providing useful information. The insights obtained from the model are of interest to policy makers. For instance, we discuss counter-terrorism measures and the decline of the organization, conditions for defeat of the organization, and the relationship between the decline in the strength of the organization and the decline of leaders and non-leaders.